Grimm-Recchia poll numbers suggest a tight race

Incumbent leads challenger by four points

September 18, 2014 By Paula Katinas Brooklyn Daily Eagle

Domenic Recchia (right) is neck-and-neck in his race with U.S. Rep. Michael Grimm.

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The first major poll in the race between U.S. Rep. Michael Grimm and his challenger Domenic Recchia showed the incumbent clinging to a slim four-point lead among likely voters in the 11th Congressional District (Brooklyn-Staten Island), but both sides said they see a silver lining buried within the numbers.

The Siena College/NY1/Capital New York poll, released on Sept. 16, showed Grimm, a Republican-Conservative running for a third term, with 44 percent of the vote to the Democratic Recchia’s 40 percent among likely voters. Green party candidate Henry Bardel had four percent. The poll found that 12 percent of voters are undecided, NY1 reported.

Grimm’s unfavorable numbers were high. Forty-nine percent of the voters polled said they had an unfavorable view of the congressman, who is under federal indictment on fraud and other charges stemming from his ownership of a health food restaurant in Manhattan. Twenty-three percent of those polled had a negative view of Recchia, a former city councilman.

Both sides were trying to spin the poll results in their favor.

Grimm’s camp claimed a slim lead is still a lead and that it was a positive development for him, given the fact that the indicted congressman is scheduled to stand trial in federal court in December.

Recchia’s supporters, however, said the poll showed that the challenger has the momentum.

To be within striking distance of a well-known incumbent with great name recognition at this point in the race is impressive, one Democratic lawmaker said.

“The race is going to be close. But the numbers are not great for Grimm. The problem for him is not so much the overall number, but the unfavorable rating. The high unfavorable number is going to hurt him in the end. If I had to one of these guys right now, I’d rather be Domenic,” he told the Brooklyn Eagle.

Another factor, according to the Democratic politician: Governor Andrew Cuomo. “Cuomo is very popular in the district, especially on the State Island side. He helped people recover from Hurricane Sandy, he helped lower the tolls on the Verrazano Bridge for Staten Islanders. They like him over there. That could help Domenic,” he said.

Cuomo, who is running for re-election, will be at the top of the Democratic Party ticket on Nov. 4.

The 11th Congressional District, which Grimm represents, is tilted toward the incumbent’s home borough of Staten Island. The district covers all of Staten Island and takes in a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn like Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights, Bensonhurst and Gravesend. But Staten Island takes up most of the district. Brooklyn takes up a much smaller portion of the district. Grimm lives on Staten Island. Recchia resides in Brooklyn.

A Republican official from Brooklyn told the Eagle that he believes Staten Island is the biggest factor in the contest. “People on Staten Island want a Staten Islander to represent them,” he said, adding that Recchia will find it hard to overcome Grimm’s “hometown boy” edge.

The poll had Grimm up by nine points, 48 percent to 39 percent, among Staten Island voters. Recchia had a seven point edge, 42 percent to 35 percent, with Brooklyn voters.

“With only four points separating the candidates, these next seven weeks look to be a major battle spanning the Verrazano Bridge. Currently, each candidate is winning the home court contest, as Grimm leads on the west side of the bridge 48-39 percent and Recchia leads 42-35 percent on the east side, about a quarter of the district,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement.

The GOP official said he thinks Grimm has dodged a bullet. “A lot of people think the indictment was politically motivated. I think the worst is over for him. I don’t think there are any bombshells that will come out against him between now and election day. Given all of the negative publicity that he has been hit with, I think the fact that he’s leading is significant,” he said.

Look for tons of money to be spent on the race. Democratic Party officials in Washington D.C. have set their sights on winning the race and defeating Grimm, the only Republican in New York City’s congressional delegation, and are pumping money into Recchia’s campaign.

The Democatic official, meanwhile, said that he thinks Republicans will start spending money as Election Day gets closer. “I know they said they were going to be hands-off because of his indictment, but I think in the end, they’ll spend the money. They don’t want to lose the seat. You’ll see a campaign commercial for him out of Washington,” he said.